In a report titled ‘The New India: Why This Is India’s Decade“, Morgan Stanley said India has the conditions in place for an economic boom. It could account for 20 percent of the growth that the world will generate.
Ridham Desai, head of India-Equity Research, as well as the India Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, said the four global trends of Demographics, Digitalization, Decarbonization and Deglobalization are favoring New India.
- The first factor that will continue to benefit India is offshoring. India has been the back office for the world for more than two decades.
- In a multi-polar world, now much of manufacturing is slated to shift to India.
- The digital revolution will transform how India lends, pays, and insures itself.
- Clean energy and the energy transition are sectors where India is keen to take a lead with Indian behemoths Reliance Industries and Adani Group taking big strides.
Indians are expected to spend more on discretionary items, since per-capita GDP has crossed the important $2,000 mark.
Morgan Stanley notes, “India’s income pyramid offers unique breadth of consumption, in our view, with the top end spending like the richest in the world and the bottom end still relatively poor. The number of households earning in excess of $35,000/year is likely to rise five-fold in the coming decade, to over $25 million.
The implications are 1) GDP is likely to cross $7.5 trillion by 2031, more than double the current level, 2) a discretionary consumption boom and 3) 11% annual compounding of market capitalization to $10 trillion in the coming decade.”
The only risk to this assessment is the risk of a prolonged recession globally, adverse geopolitical risks, and an unstable government at the center in India.
Last updated: December 26th, 2025
