As India heads into national elections starting this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is confidently setting highly ambitious economic targets for the next decade if he wins another term as expected. According to a government document seen by Reuters, Modi aims to roughly double India’s economy and and its exports by 2030.
The goal is to expand the economy to $6.69 trillion in nominal terms by 2030, up from around $3.51 trillion currently which implies growth at over 11 percent annually. This would involve raising per capita income to $4,418 from the current level of around $2,500. While short on specifics of how to achieve these lofty targets, the document has formed the basis for official meetings and planning.
Modi has showcased economic growth as a major achievement at election rallies, even boldly “guaranteeing” India will become the world’s third largest economy, up from fifth currently, if he secures another term as polls predict. The economy likely grew around 8% in the last fiscal year, the fastest among major economies.
However, some economists are skeptical the vision can be realized without major reforms. Independent economist Saugata Bhattacharya the challenge is enacting reforms to sustain such rapid growth over many years. “The issue that a vision document should address is the set of structural reforms required to sustain this or a higher real GDP growth rate over a long time, a very difficult feat,” he said.
The document outlines raising exports of goods and services to $1.58 trillion by 2030 from $700 billion currently, doubling India’s share of global exports above 4%. Other targets include improving literacy, vocational training and workforce skills – areas industry has long flagged as priorities.
Last updated: December 26th, 2025
