India and Canada appear to be moving rapidly toward a new trade agreement, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected to visit Canada in December as the two countries work to conclude negotiations by the end of 2026.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said last week that negotiations were making good progress and that he expected to host Modi in Canada around the time of the G20 summit in December. India’s High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, has gone further, saying he expects negotiations to be completed by November and the agreement to be signed during Modi’s visit.
For businesses on both sides of the relationship, the development represents a significant turnaround after several difficult years in India-Canada relations.
Trade Negotiations Are Accelerating
The two countries are negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or CEPA, intended to reduce trade barriers and improve access for goods, services and investment.
Four rounds of negotiations have now been completed, according to the Canadian government, with both sides committed to trying to conclude the talks by the end of 2026. Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu and Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal met recently in Mumbai, after which Ottawa said the discussions had produced meaningful progress.
A fifth negotiating round is expected to begin in early October.
The talks cover a number of areas, including goods, services, investment and professional mobility. Patnaik has said the agreement is expected to include tariff reductions and measures intended to make it easier for companies and investment capital to move between the two countries.
Tariff-rate quotas are also expected to be part of the negotiations. These allow specified quantities of certain products to enter at a lower tariff rate, while imports above that threshold are subject to higher duties.
A $30 Billion-Plus Commercial Relationship
The economic relationship is already substantial. Canada says two-way goods and services trade with India totaled C$30.4 billion in 2025. Merchandise trade accounted for C$13.6 billion, while services represented a particularly important component of the relationship.
India has also become an increasingly important market for Canadian services. According to Global Affairs Canada, India became Canada’s second-largest services export market in 2025, behind the United States, with education-related travel accounting for a significant share.
The two governments have set a much larger goal: expanding bilateral trade to approximately C$70 billion annually by 2030.
For Canadian businesses, opportunities in India extend well beyond traditional merchandise trade. The Canadian government has identified sectors including agriculture, clean technology, infrastructure and digital industries as areas with substantial commercial potential. Energy, artificial intelligence, financial services, aerospace and health care are also increasingly part of the bilateral discussion.
More Than a Trade Agreement
A December Modi visit could produce agreements beyond CEPA.
Patnaik has said he expects India and Canada to pursue greater cooperation in areas such as defense and aerospace. The two countries are also developing educational and innovation ties under the Canada-India Talent and Innovation Strategy. Professional mobility could become another important issue. Patnaik has previously raised the possibility of a trusted-traveler arrangement that would make business travel between India and Canada easier, somewhat analogous to the NEXUS program used by pre-approved travelers between Canada and the United States.
Such an arrangement is not currently part of the trade agreement, and no program has been announced. But Patnaik has suggested that mobility could become an area for further discussion after a trade agreement is completed.
For companies operating across the two countries, easier movement of executives, engineers and other professionals could ultimately prove almost as important as tariff reductions.
December Could Become the Key Month
The precise dates of Modi’s expected Canada visit have not yet been announced, and a final trade agreement has not yet been completed.
However, both governments are publicly targeting the end of 2026 for conclusion of the CEPA negotiations. Carney has said he expects Modi to visit Canada around the same time as this year’s G20 meeting.
That creates a potentially important diplomatic and commercial window in December. The 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit is scheduled for December 14–15 at Trump National Doral Miami in Doral, Florida, near Miami. Carney has said that he and Modi had previously set the G20 as a target for completing the trade negotiations and that he expects to host Modi in Canada around that time.
If the negotiations remain on schedule, December could therefore see Modi combine his trip to the G20 summit in Miami with a Canadian visit focused on trade and the broader rebuilding of India-Canada economic relations.
For Canadian companies interested in doing business with India, the important development is not simply another diplomatic visit. A comprehensive trade agreement between India and Canada could materially change market access, investment flows and business opportunities between two economies whose commercial relationship is already worth more than C$30 billion annually.
