Martin Wolf of the Financial Times discusses India’s potential to become a superpower by 2047, its 100th year of independence. He argues that India is likely to achieve superpower status, with an economy potentially as large as that of the United States.
To illustrate the challenge of becoming a high-income country, Wolf compares India’s economic growth to that of Greece, the poorest “advanced” economy according to the International Monetary Fund. In 2023, India’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) was about a quarter of Greece’s. To match Greece’s GDP per capita by 2047, India would need to grow at 7.5% annually, which is close to China’s extraordinary growth rate of 9% from 1990 to 2012.
India’s growth in GDP per head now surpasses China’s, as seen in this chart from the Financial Times article (best seen in the original article here)
While achieving developed status may be difficult, India’s projected population growth gives it an advantage in terms of overall economic size. United Nations forecasts suggest that by 2050, India’s population will reach 1.67 billion, compared to 1.32 billion in China and 380 million in the US. If India’s GDP grows at 5% annually until 2047, its economy at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) will equal that of the U.S., despite lower technological advancement and productivity.
The author identifies several factors that could impede India’s growth, including a global economic slowdown, increased protectionism, climate crisis, and potential conflicts among superpowers. However, he also highlights India’s strengths, such as its strategic importance to the West, influential diaspora, and human resources that can help diversify and upgrade the economy.
Wolf emphasizes the importance of exports for India’s growth, refuting arguments against trade expansion. He notes that India’s share in world merchandise exports (2.2% in 2022) and commercial services exports (4.4%) are still relatively low, indicating significant room for growth. The author argues that India could become a “connector country” in the world economy and should lead in trade liberalization efforts.
The article stresses that India’s biggest challenges are internal. These include:
1. Maintaining stability
2. Improving education
3. Defending the rule of law
4. Upgrading infrastructure
5. Providing a favorable investment environment
6. Encouraging inward investment
7. Accelerating the shift towards clean energy
(Note by Gunjan Bagla: In my experience India is doing well on all counts except Item 5, where it needs to more aware of the needs of global investors)
Wolf expresses cautious optimism following recent elections, hoping that the government will focus more on economic development and population welfare rather than cultural issues. He believes that India can become an influential and stabilizing force in the world if it addresses these challenges effectively.
While India may not achieve fully developed status by 2047, it is poised to become a significant global superpower. Its large population and potential for economic growth make it likely to match the U.S. economy in size, even if not in technological advancement or productivity. However, to realize this potential, India must overcome internal challenges, focus on economic development, and leverage its strengths in the global arena. The author emphasizes that India is not just constrained by the world but has the capacity to shape it, underlining the country’s potential role as a major player in the future global order.
Last updated: December 26th, 2025
