China has long been the real engine behind the BRICS but with its own growth slowing now values the concept as a diplomatic forum, says an article in Forbes, written by Hong Kong-based China expert, Douglas Bulloch. The key problem with BRICS has always been that there is little that unites all its member countries aside from a once-shared propensity for high rates of growth, the article adds.
The upshot is that China has huge amounts of infrastructure and an economy that must now service enormous amounts of debt. The staggering GDP growth figures they have achieved over many years have yet to register the consequences of all that investment and if much of it generates little or no return, the consequent write-downs will weigh down on China’s GDP figures for years to come. Some estimate coming write-downs in excess of 35% of GDP, which would mean China’s economy is actually much smaller than its reported GDP.
India, on the other hand, registered a growth rate higher than China last year, and while India’s economy is much smaller than China’s right now, in contrast to China it has a great deal of catch up growth ahead of it, and–again unlike China–has a government with an appetite for structural reform as a key driver for future growth, rather than debt-fueled investment and exports.
Forbes: China, with its enormous debts, closed capital markets, asset bubbles and increasing communist party interference in the economy would look like an entirely different kind of investment prospect than India, with its greater growth potential, favorable demographics, open and pluralist society and reform minded government. Indeed, apart from both being large economies it’s hard to imagine anyone putting the two economies in the same category anymore.
